QUARTERBACK

Drake Maye (New England Patriots)

In the five games Maye has started, the rookie has finished as a Top-12 quarterback four times and was QB15 in the other. He has a solid floor due to his rushing ability, with at least 24 rushing yards in each start. Maye has passed for at least 2 touchdowns in three of the five games. The Patriots are 7-point underdogs and should be passing and playing from behind, and the Dolphins have allowed at least 282 passing yards and at least 2 touchdown passes to three of the last four quarterbacks they played.

RUNNING BACK

Roschon Johnson (Chicago Bears)

D’Andre Swift is dealing with a groin injury and Johnson saw a bigger workload last week in the first game under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. Johnson played a season-high 44% of the snaps and had 34% of the rushing attempts, and was on the field in the two-minute offense and near the goal line. He had 10 carries for 33 yards with a touchdown and caught an 8-yard pass. It’s not an easy matchup against the Vikings, who allow the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

WIDE RECEIVER

Noah Brown (Washington Commanders)

Brown has at least six targets in three of the last four games and is coming off two difficult matchups against the Steelers and Eagles. Brown has played at least 77% of the snaps in three of the last four games and gets a great matchup against Dallas. The Cowboys struggle to defend outside wide receivers. If you like narratives, it’s a revenge game for Brown, who played for Dallas for his first five years in the NFL.

TIGHT END

Will Dissly (Los Angeles Chargers)

Dissly has become a trusted target for Justin Herbert. He has 33 targets over the last five games and caught 4 passes for 80 yards with a touchdown last week with at least 8 points in PPR formats in four of the last five games. The Chargers are starting to pass more and the game against the Ravens sets up as one with more passing, especially with Baltimore weak against the pass and strong against the run.

If you need more streamers to consider, remember to check out our start/sit tool to compare options and double down to see how our expert rankers view fringe options this week.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. Week 12 Roundtable: Ma, the Cutlets …

2. Watercooler: Jameis Winston is a national treasure

3. WR/CB Matchups To Target and Avoid

WEEK 12 ROUNDTABLE

Week 12 Expert Roundtable: A New Giant At QB

by Cooterdoodle

In this week's roundtable, we bring in Fantasy Life’s very own Peter Overzet, Dwain McFarland, and Sam Wallace. 

Let’s get into it:

Q: It was announced on Monday morning that the New York Giants are now tanking for the 1.01 …

AHH, Sorry! Typo!

**It was announced on Monday morning that the New York Giants are now starting Tommy DeVito at QB.

What does this QB change mean for the Giants’ pass catchers moving forward? And do you think the price of chicken cutlets will rise in the near future?

Sam: The mishandling of both Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley will set this franchise back a generation (or more). Regardless, we must turn our attention to what lies in front of us—Tommy DeVito will be back under center this weekend.

Last season, he essentially played five full games and was borderline serviceable as a fantasy option.

He had 7 TDs and just 1 INT and also averaged 5.4 rushing attempts per game. At the very least, he can't be worse than Jones. As long as DeVito promises to feed Malik Nabers, fantasy managers shouldn't be too concerned.

Pete: Tommy Cutlets becoming your mom's favorite QB and saving Malik Nabers from fantasy purgatory was always part of the 2024 script Roger Goodell penned in his den this past summer. I think he can pepper Nabers back to WR2 status, but all bets are off for everyone else. Sorry, Wan'Dale.

Dwain: The question on everyone's mind is, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR MALIK NABERS? Here is the bad news: Tommy DeVito averaged only 172 yards and 0.9 TDs in games where he played at least 80% of the snaps last season. 

Historically, that sort of QB play has capped fantasy production in a significant way. Since 2011, only 2% of WRs with at least 400 routes have posted a WR1 finish when their team averaged 175 to 199 yards passing per game.

But here is the good news: Daniel Jones threw for only 191 yards per game in the Nabers-less offense last season—not much better than DeVito. There is a decent chance that this is only a slight downgrade or a push for Nabers, thanks to his league-leading 36% target share.

The reality of low-end quarterback play caught up with Nabers before this move. He has averaged 12 fantasy points per game with a 7.9 Utilization Score over the last four games. Historical comps with that score have finished as a low-end WR1 54% of the time and notched a WR2 finish 42%. Nabers is a midrange to high-end WR2 the rest of the way.

Cooterdoodle: I’m ready to be hurt again. moves Malik Nabers into FLEX

RELATED CONTENT:

• Chris Allen and Jorge Martin get you up to speed on the Week 12 injury report.

• Jonathan Fuller breaks down trades to entertain, whether you’re buying or selling.

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

🏈 A full slate of college football games on tap … Small schools under the microscope.

🏈 Want a chance to go to the CFB National Championship? We’ve got you covered. And go here for more details on how to enter.

👀 32 Facts for 32 Teams. Everything you need to dominate for Week 12.

🚑 Ian and Dwain bring you the Week 12 Injury Report.

🧙 The Bellofatto Build offers up a wickedly good parlay to sweep up the winnings.

🚀 Jayden Daniels is set for takeoff. Week 12’s five best player props.

👨‍💻 College Football today as an appetizer for tomorrow. Player props for today’s slate.

🤝 Focusing on just NFL this weekend instead? We have you covered, too.

WEEK 12 MATCHUPS

Welcome Back, Mike Evans

by Chris Allen

I want to rant about the schedule.

Six teams out with the end-of-season tournament around the corner—just one more hurdle fantasy managers have to overcome. However, we have to do this again in Week 14. Even still, evaluating matchups shouldn’t fall out of our process for putting together a starting lineup.

If you’re anything like me, finding active, healthy players is more than half the battle. But they still need to score points! And, in theory, they’re generating more than your opponent. So, even with the slim pickings, setting expectations should inform your roster decisions. And, to help, let’s walk through six matchups to set the stage for Week 12.

Matchup to Target

Mike Evans at Giants

NFL Insiders broke news on Wednesday that brought a sigh of relief to Bucs fans and fantasy managers alike—Evans is back.

He needs to average 95 yards a game to close out the season with his 11th 1,000-yard season. On the one hand, I’d like to think Tampa prefers to continue stacking wins. But, actually, on the flip side, with their WR1 back, there’s a path for them to do both.

• (Weeks 1-6) Air-Yard Share: 41.4% (8th-most of 34 WRs—min. 20.0% target share)

• First Downs per Target: 0.48 (6th-most)

• End-Zone Targets: 8 (2nd-most)

Even at 31 years old, Evans is still using his 6-foot-5 frame to make plays downfield. When everyone was healthy, Evans’ air-yard share dwarfed Chris Godwin’s 25% slice of the pie. With Godwin gone, Evans walks into a WR group that is equally injured as he was. Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard have had their own hamstring ailments. So, Evans’ offensive situation situation lends itself to earning a majority of the targets. But his defensive matchup sets him up to produce like he was at the start of the season.

Evans has lined up on the left side on 65.0% of his snaps and will likely draw Giants CB Deonte Banks. Of the 45 corners with 300 or more coverage snaps, Banks has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards and the second-most TDs. Banks has surrendered a league-high 137.8 passer rating when targeted. It’s reasonable to assume Tampa will ease Evans back into action, but against the Giants’ secondary, a WR1 outcome is in his range of outcomes. 

COOTERDOODLE’S FAVE TWEET

Jameis Winston but he gets progressively happier because he’s remembering snow

— John Rich (@JohnRichTV)
2:26 AM • Nov 22, 2024

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