A Star TE Expected To Miss
 | Nov. 17, 2024 |
You know that phrase, “Win or go home”? It’s generally reserved for playoff scenarios, but it directly applies to Doug Pederson’s outlook in Week 11. Reports indicate that he’s out of a job if the Jags lose to the Lions today. For reference, the Jags are 13.5-point road underdogs today and +625 to pull off the upset. That means Pederson has roughly a 14% chance of keeping his job. Like you in your fantasy matchup, he’s going to need a little luck today. Here’s everything else you need to know before setting your lineup … |  Peter Overzet |
Have a replacement for George Kittle. Kittle has played through a Q tag most weeks, but today is different as he is unlikely to play, per Adam Schefter. Jauan Jennings is a must-start everywhere. If you’re looking for a TE streamer, check our ranks. Two deep league options: Dawson Knox if you want to go TD hunting; Davis Allen if you want to bank a few receptions.
Players good to go today. Despite injury questions, all of these guys are ready to roll in Week 11: Davante Adams, Jaylen Warren (double check this one at 11:30 AM ET), Sam Darnold, Najee Harris, Tee Higgins, Tyreek Hill, Aaron Jones, Isaiah Likely, DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman, JuJu Smith-Schuster.
If you are playing DFS today, we have two pieces below with some sharp angles to consider for your tournament lineups. Good luck today …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
Week 11 DFS: A QB-RB Combo To Consider
Watercooler: The RB going off today
More Week 11 DFS: Why The 49ers Are A Top Target
NFL DFS |  |
An Offense In A Smash Spot To Load Up On
by Peter Overzet
Today, I have three value stack ideas for Week 11 DFS tournaments on DraftKings—two of them fall into that aforementioned "unconventional" stack bucket, while the third is a classic Vomit Stack.
Let's get to it …
🏆 THE QB/RB STACK (Bo Nix & Audric Estime)
QB Bo Nix ($5300)
RB Audric Estime ($4500)
On the surface, a QB and RB pairing feel negatively correlated. If a QB is passing TDs, doesn't that mean the RB isn't rushing them in? That negative correlation is true on an individual play basis, but not necessarily true over the course of the game.
When an offense rolls, the QB/RB pairing is often responsible for the majority of those points. We've seen this play out multiple times this year with Jalen Hurts/Saquon Barkley, Lamar Jackson/Derrick Henry, and most recently, Kyler Murray/James Conner.
You'll notice a theme there. All of those QBs have massive rushing upside, which means they don't need to bring along a pass catcher on a massive day.
That brings us to Nix and Estime, who are admittedly a dollar-store version of those previously mentioned QB/RB stacks, but possess all of the ingredients to unlock a tournament-winning roster thanks to their cheap price tags and upside.
Let's start with Nix, who has been rock solid over the last four weeks, averaging 19.4 fantasy points. As Dwain noted in his rankings risers column, “The rookie ranks seventh in designed rushing attempt share (12%) and scramble rate (7%) out of all QBs with at least 175 snaps.”
This is a great matchup for Nix, too. The Broncos are 3-point home favorites vs. a Falcons defense that has given up the 10th-most points per game to QBs through the air. We also know Nix can put up a big score against a weak defense like he did in Week 8 vs. Carolina (29.8 fantasy points).
Nix won't fly completely under the radar this week, but I'd wager that the majority of Nix enjoyers will stack him up with Courtland Sutton ($5900), who is coming off a big three-game stretch after a bagel in Week 7 vs. the Saints.
Because of Nix's rushing upside and willingness to spread the ball around, I'd prefer to sidestep the chalky QB/WR stack and instead pivot to an intriguing QB/RB stack with his fellow rookie, Estime.
Last week marked a flippening in the Broncos backfield as the 21-year-old bested Javonte Williams in snaps (45% > 29%) and rush attempts (64% > 5%). Because this resulted in only 53 scoreless yards, this changing of the guard will likely go overlooked.
But like Nix, this matchup sets up positively for Estime. As home favorites in an assumed positive game script, he should have plenty of opportunities, and the Falcons are nothing special against the run.
Matthew Freedman did the heavy lifting for us on this matchup in his RB favorites piece: "The Falcons are No. 28 in defensive rush SR (45.2%), EDGE Lorenzo Carter (concussion, IR) and DT Ruke Orhorhoro (ankle, IR) are out, and DT Ta'Quon Graham (pectoral) might miss Week 11."
For less than 10K in total salary, this funky stack has the potential to massively outperform expectations while allowing you to jam in a bunch of other studs.
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER |  |
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🚁 The RB going for 200+ and 2 TDs today. The chopper has spoken.
✍️ Injuries and byes are piling up, but we have you covered. Your start-sit recommendations.
🙏 Can the Bears make things easy on Caleb? They are going to try.
📊 Projections for every player on the Sunday slate … great tool to help with lineup decisions.
💰 Player Props for today’s slate. Geoff has you covered.
NFL DFS | |
Week 11 DFS: A Top Stack, Value, and More
by James McCool
Week 11 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.
I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 11 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.
Top Week 11 Stack - San Francisco 49ers
Even without going into detail on San Fran as a great stacking option, it’s pretty easy to see why you should play them. All three of their QB+2 options show up in the top 5 stacks for the slate based on median projections and ceilings.
With a team total of 29.00, they have the second-best expectation from the markets on the slate, and to go with that, each of the stacks projects for less than $20,000. That’s important this week as there is a stark lack of value across the positions, which means value at our stack is monumentally important. We can see that we have that with 49ers QB+2s here as their 3x and 4x rates are the second-best on the slate behind New England stacks (gross).
We also have Christian McCaffrey back, who will keep ownership low and grab ownership himself. This represents a nice spot to gain relative value and leverage on the field through a natural pivot to the passing game.
Overall, while I think both SF and BAL stacks have value, I’ll side with the 49ers thanks to the team total and overall game environment.
Week 11 Value Plays
QB: Drake Maye
Note that I would have written up Brock Purdy here, he is the true best value at QB on the slate, but I don’t think that’s necessary after writing up SF in the stacks. Instead, I’ll side with Drake Maye, who has the second-best 4x rate on the slate and has some intriguing baselines we could exploit.
I don’t hear many people talking about it, but Maye is a pretty elusive guy and has the third-highest scramble rate in the league at 12%. Through 6 games he has 233 rushing yards (9.3 yards per attempt) and a touchdown, which is, for all intents and purposes, a really nice rushing floor. You don’t have many guys who are this cheap who give rushing stats as well, and NE should be in a position to push the envelope this week.
I think Maye makes for an interesting large-field GPP option, especially when used in a QB+1 stack.
WR: Jakobi Meyers
Jakobi Meyers is an excellent value play due to his WR1 usage since Week 3 and a price that hasn't caught up to his production. He's averaged 15.6 PPR points with a significant share of targets (30%) and air yards (37%), providing a high floor and considerable upside. While poor quarterback play and a low team total might limit his overall ceiling potential, his affordable price mitigates the issues there.
With a median projection of 15.22, a ceiling of 33.02, and the highest 4x rate among WRs (19.30%), Meyers offers a terrific combination of safety and upside.
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