No Brock Purdy, now what? Purdy is expected to return next week vs. Buffalo, but we are stuck with Brandon Allen today. We’ve seen this Shanahan offense provide stability for subpar QBs before (I’m looking at you, Jimmy G), so I wouldn’t panic about the wheels falling off. As you can see in our ranks, CMC is still a must-start, Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings are WR2s, and George Kittle is a Top-5 TE. Deep breaths.

Can you trust Mike Evans and Malik Nabers? Evans is returning from a hamstring injury and is expected to be “without any restrictions,” so I can’t imagine not starting him. Nabers is trickier, though. Not only do we have QB uncertainty with Tommy DeVito, but he’s been battling a groin injury and had a Friday DNP. That said, he’s expected to play and our ranking crew has him as a mid-WR2 at worst with WR1 upside.

Is the Chuba Hubbard ride coming to an end? Jonathon Brooks is finally going to make his NFL debut today, but I’m still starting Hubbard. They’ve slow-played Brooks so much that I can’t imagine the team saddling him up with double-digit touches off the rip. We have Hubbard as a rock-solid RB2.

In a pinch? If you are desperate for a RB or FLEX start, I’d look to Ameer Abdullah. With Alexander Mattison (ankle) and Zamir White (quad) doubtful, Abdullah should see 12-15 touches and catch a couple of balls. For more streamer ideas, check Ronis’ four suggestions from yesterday.

Read on for some Week 12 DFS angles …

What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. Week 12 DFS: The “Powder Keg” Stack About To Explode …

2. Watercooler: Last-Minute Sleepers

3. More Week 12 DFS: Broncos Country, Let’s Ride

NFL DFS

Stacks Upon Stacks for Week 12 DFS Success

by Peter Overzet

This week sets up as a tricky slate with six teams on byes and only one game with a total of over 50. 

That means we'll need to get creative and embrace some spots that might feel a bit uncomfortable.

With that said, here are three stack ideas to toy with in Week 12 DraftKings tournaments …

🏆 The "Powder Keg" Stack (Seahawks)

• Geno Smith ($5700)

• DK Metcalf ($6600) AND Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6300)

Apologies if you are getting sick of me featuring the Seahawks in these pieces, but I can't help myself.

And thanks to a condensed target tree and a juicy matchup, Geno & Co. have graduated from "Vomit Stack" territory to a "Powder Keg" that's about to explode.

This Seahawks/Cardinals game is my favorite game of the week. With a 48.5-point total and massive playoff implications on the line in the NFC West, I expect to see plenty of fantasy fireworks.

Death, taxes, and Geno being too cheap on DraftKings. He currently leads the NFL in passing yards (278.1) and the Seahawks lead the league in pass plays per game (37.4). There is nothing scary about this Cardinals defense either. They rank No. 29 in defensive dropback success rate and struggle to get pressure on the QB. 

The nice thing about a Geno double stack this week is that we don't have to guess where the targets are going. Noah Fant continues to miss practices with a groin injury and the 32-year-old Tyler Lockett is getting phased out of the offense (10% target share over last three games).

That means we can comfortably pair Geno with Metcalf (he returned to a 29% target share after missing two games) and JSN (he's been on fire with a 37% target share over the past two weeks).

The fact that JSN was able to maintain a gaudy target share despite the return of Metcalf is extremely bullish for his outlook this week (and the rest of the season) and confirms what the Seahawks said they wanted to do coming out of the bye.

If you want to add James Conner ($6500) as a bring-back to this stack, I don't hate it, but I wouldn't force it.

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

🤔 Where is Daniel Jones going to land? Some interesting names here.

⚖️ Is the Byepocalypse giving you a roster crunch? Here are your start-sit recommendations.

💰 Need a last-minute sleeper to set your lineup? Sam Wallace uncovers some options.

📊 Projections for every player in Week 12 … another tool to help with lineup decisions.

🎭️ More Aaron Rodgers drama. It’s going to be a long offseason.

NFL DFS

Week 12 DFS: A Top Stack, Value, and More

by James McCool

Week 12 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.

I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 12 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades. 

Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.

Top Week 12 Stack - Denver Broncos

Normally I would display the top 5 QB+2 stacks here, but the Broncos don’t fit into that mold. The Broncos this week represent a really interesting combo of value and upside that I don’t think is captured especially well in the models but is worth buying into.

Bo Nix has broken out in the last couple of games. He now has four games this season with 20+ PPR points as well as two games, both in his last five starts, with 28+ PPR points. He’s averaging 18.3 PPR points per game (right behind Jayden Daniels at 18.4) and doing so on good passing volume and a 20% rush rate. You get all of this for just $6,300!

Likewise, you can pair him with Courtland Sutton, who has a 37% 3x rate in the Paydirt simulations and has some terrific baselines. Since week 8, he is averaging 30% of the targets, 46% of the air yards, and 25% of the endzone targets along with a Utilization Score of 9.4. He has been a top 5 WR in the league in this sample and is priced at just $5,800.

I think that going for a QB+1 here using Nix + Sutton in larger field GPPs gives you an awesome base for a lineup with plenty of upside and a lot of salary to spend at other premium positions.

Week 12 Value Plays

QB: Tommy DeVito

Now, to be fair, I do not think that Tommy DeVito is good. In fact, I think he is very much not good. He is legitimately bad. However, he is also the stone minimum price on Draftkings at $4,000, and it’s really hard to pass that up. Especially considering he gets to throw to Malik Nabers ($7,200), it makes for a similar QB+1 outlined with Nix+Sutton but for even less money.

Currently, NYG has a team total of 18.00 points, and we should expect it to stay there or drop, but you don’t need a lot from DeVito to pay off. He is projected for 14-15 PPR points, and if he scores 20 he has crushed this price tag. He’s worth a flier in an MME set or the Milly Maker.

RB: De’Von Achane

Achane continues to hold a relatively low price tag in DFS even though the Dolphins' offense is starting to get back on track. Since week 8 he is averaging 22.4 PPR points on 51% of the rushing attempts and a 12% target share. This week he gets the added bonus of facing the Patriots, who are allowing a PPR boost of +4.5 above average to opposing RBs. He makes for a high-expectation play with a massive ceiling and should be a foundation in lineups that are not dedicated to MIA stacks.

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