A Failed Experiment
 | Nov. 20, 2024 |
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Last week at this time we were calling the Bears the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL after they pulled the plug on the OC they never should have hired in the first place. But that statement might have been shortchanging the Jets, who are certainly giving them a run for their money in the dysfunction department. After firing their head coach and losing a few more games, heads continued to roll yesterday with the firing of GM Joe Douglas. |  Peter Overzet |
The Jets had gone an embarrassing 30-64 during Douglas’ five-and-a-half seasons with the team.
He got a mulligan last year after Aaron Rodgers suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1, but there was nowhere left to hide after the Jets’ egregious 3-8 start this year.
After going all in, it’s time for a full-on rebuild with Rodgers seeming very unlikely to return at this point.
It is going to be very painful to watch the prime years for Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson waste away as the team tries to find its next franchise savior at QB, but stupid orgs win stupid prizes.
I’m just thankful that they are on bye this week. We can deal with this mess when they return in Week 13 vs. the Seahawks …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
Freedman’s Favorites: Top Plays for Week 12
Watercooler: Saquon Barkley could be having an even better season.
Ian’s Manifesto: Everything you need to know for Week 12
FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES |  |
Freedman’s Favorites for Week 12
Here are a couple of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 12. Check out his full articles and rankings for more.
Jayden Daniels (Commanders) vs. Cowboys
Commanders: -10
O/U: 44.5
TT: 27.25
Situationally, the Commanders are in a great spot this week. They're at home. They have 10 days between games thanks to playing last week on Thursday Night Football. And the Cowboys have only six days to rest and prepare because they're coming off Monday Night Football.
Historically, teams have outperformed market expectations in such a "widowmaker spot" (per Action Network).
Home Widowmaker (ATS): 10-4 | 39.8% ROI | +6.71 Margin
Home Widowmaker (ML): 11-3 | 13.3% ROI | +12.3 Margin
On top of that, the matchup is good: The Cowboys are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+4.1). And their ability to generate pressure is diminished without EDGEs DeMarcus Lawrence (foot, IR), Marshawn Kneeland (knee, IR), and Sam Williams (knee, IR).
Ever since exiting Week 7 early with a lingering rib injury, Daniels has been less than his best self.
Weeks 1-7: 75.6% completion rate | 8.6 AY/A | 53.1 rushing yards per game
Weeks 8-11: 59.5% completion rate | 7.6 AY/A | 27.5 rushing yards per game
But I expect him to be close to peak capacity now that he's one more week removed from the injury with three additional days to recover.
Respectively ranked Nos. 1 & 4 among all starting QBs with a 13% scramble rate and 15% designed rush share (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report), Daniels has a high floor on a week-to-week basis, and his matchup this week gives him a significant ceiling.
He has lost a little bit of his shine over the past month, but Daniels is still a worthy -400 Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner. Sadly, I expect him to crush my Cowboys.
Joe Mixon (Texans) vs. Titans
Texans: -7.5
O/U: 41
TT: 24.25
This is my second week in a row to highlight Joe Mixon, but I can't help myself.
If we remove his injury-impacted Week 2, which Mixon exited early with an ankle issue, we have a seven-game sample in which he has looked like an absolute league winner.
Week 1: 178 yards, 1 TD | 30 carries, 3 targets
Week 6: 132 yards, 2 TDs | 13 carries, 3 targets
Week 7: 124 yards, 2 TDs | 25 carries, 3 targets
Week 8: 134 yards, 1 TD | 25 carries, 6 targets
Week 9: 106 yards, 1 TD | 24 carries
Week 10: 90 yards, 1 TD | 25 carries, 4 targets
Week 11: 153 yards, 3 TDs | 20 carries, 4 targets
As a home favorite of more than a TD, Mixon has an excellent chance of seeing another outsized workload this week, and the Titans could be without LB Jack Gibbens (ankle), who this year has been the team's top off-ball rush defender (79.9 run defense grade, per PFF).
MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES:
WRs for Week 12: Nico Collins is back and now ready for takeoff.
RBs for Week 12: De’Von Achane is ready to smash.
TEs for Week 12: Jonnu Smith is finally in the right situation for him.
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER |  |
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🧐 Ian and Dwain break down Utilization Report data and identify trade targets.
🤯 Bo Nix or Patrick Mahomes ROS? Matthew Berry's answer may surprise you.
🚀 The new WR1 in San Francisco. It’s pretty clear.
📺️ In-season Hard Knocks covers the AFC North. This could be cool.
😆 An incredible story from Eddie Lacy. Big brother was watching.
💪 Josh Jacobs begging to be hit. Alpha play.
🤔 How many times has THIS happened to Saquon Barkley? SHEESH!
IAN’S MANIFESTO | |
Ian’s Week 12 Manifesto
By Ian Hartitz
And just like that: Week 12 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!
Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more. Here is one of the storylines.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Is it time to trust Ladd McConkey as an every-week WR2 in fantasy land?
We're getting there! The 34th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft has really started to come into his own over the past month of action:
Week 8: 6 receptions-111 yards-2 TD (6 targets), PPR WR2
Week 9: 5-64-0 (7), WR33
Week 10: 2-52-0 (2), WR48
Week 11: 6-123-0 (9), WR16
Top 15 in ESPN's Open Score and 22nd in PFF receiving grade, McConkey looks the part of a #good real-life receiver inside of an offense led by arguably the game's hottest QB (on-field, get your mind out of the gutter) in Justin Herbert.
There's also the reality that this Chargers offense has taken a step forward in terms of its dropback rate over expected since returning from the Week 5 bye. Whether it's Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman leaning into the forward pass, or Herbert simply being healthier and in a better position to drop back more often: This is no longer one of the game's most run-heavy offenses.
Chargers dropback rate over expected:
Weeks 1-4: -5% (tied for 25th)
Week 6-11: +1% (tied for 9th)
Up next is what the kids might call a smash spot against the Ravens, who have allowed the most PPR points per game to opposing WRs this season and boast the sort of offensive firepower to coax Herbert and Co. into a potential fantasy-friendly shootout. While it's tough to squeeze McConkey into the position's top-12 options, I do like him as an upside WR2 this week ahead of guys like Jayden Reed, DeVonta Smith, and Marvin Harrison Jr., among others.
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