Underdog Pick'em Plays. Top Picks for the NFL Divisional Round.

Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I also include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” using our Fantasy Life projections.

This week we’ll have four games across two days to choose from. I’ll not limit myself to any one day this week but will have some extra picks down towards the end as usual to cover a few spots that get left out from our main ticket. 

Last week was a little rough as the Steelers-Bills game got moved (from terrible weather to less inclement weather) and that put a hamper on some of the LOWER props I’d chosen. But we’ll aim to bounce back this week and, as a reminder, there are also extra pick’em plays up in the FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life. 

Even after a slow couple of weeks, we are still up over +70 units on the season for all posted plays. 

For the Divisional round, I once again went with five uncorrelated plays, which makes it a little tougher to hit but also keeps the payouts at 20x (which we love).

There are a few plays included that you could correlate (eg the Rachaad White HIGHER with a Mayfield HIGHER on yards) and, depending on the volume you play, it’s never a bad idea to mix and match your favorite props into other tickets (although, in general, you don’t want to have the same prop on every pick’em ticket either). 

Regardless of how you’re building this week, it’s always good to be mindful of payouts and exposure before entering. 

My entire five-way pick’em card for the Divisional Round is below. 

As a reminder, you can sign up for Underdog Fantasy below with promo code LIFE to get a 100% deposit match of up to $100:

Jayden Reed HIGHER than 40.5 receiving yards 

• Play to 43.5
• Fantasy Life Projection: 46.6 yards

Jayden Reed is coming off a slow week (3 targets, 0 catches) but with his prop now in the low 40’s (it was in the low 50s a couple of weeks ago) I am ready to buy the dip. 

Reed has been a very consistent performer for the Packers down the stretch. The rookie averaged 84 yards over his last three games of the regular season, which included a 112-yard effort against the notoriously tough secondary of the Bears. The matchup this week also looks better for Reed. 

The 49ers' secondary isn’t as good at guarding against the slot as the Cowboys is/was (Dallas allowed the third-fewest PPR ppg to slot receivers this year) and names like Christian Kirk were able to come through with big weeks against this unit. 

San Francisco is also sure to put more pressure on Green Bay, both on the scoreboard and from a pass rush perspective, making the slot receiver's after-the-catch ability more valuable to Jordan Love this week. 

Regardless, I like playing his HIGHER on Reed in this spot and have a feeling he’ll pop back up with a big game for us Saturday Night. 

Rachaad White HIGHER than 21.5 receiving yards 

• Play to 22.5
• Fantasy Life Projection: 26.9 

The Lions have a true funnel to the pass defense that has now allowed an average of 379.5 passing yards over their last four games. Detroit has also allowed plenty of solid receiving backs, like White, to have big receiving days against them already.

Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler both put up 40+ rec yards against the Lions and little-known Ronnie Rivers averaged 11.66 yards per catch last week (3 rec, 35 yards).

Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) fends off Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Avonte Maddox (29) during the second half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

While White only saw one target last week, a lot of his usage from the Eagles game (18 carries, 72 yards; 1 rec, 5 yards) was game-flow induced. The Lions (7-2 SU at home and with the eighth-best offense in EPA per play metrics) don’t seem likely to allow the Buccaneers to run away with this game as the Eagles just did. 

Considering White also plays nearly every snap for the Buccaneers when they’re in up-tempo situations (93% snap count on 2-minute snaps this year) his targeting this week seems likely to spike to his usual norms or potentially far past it. 

While White’s HIGHER, on its own, is showing good value (via our projections) pairing it with a Baker Mayfield HIGHER (passing yards) also makes sense this week, as long as you don’t mind taking a slightly lower payout.

Jameson Williams LOWER than 2.5 receptions 

• Play to 2.5
• Fantasy Life Projection: 2.4

This prop doesn’t seem very big at first glance but when you start to assess the situation there is really no reason to be bullish on a higher volume day for Jameson Williams in this spot. First of all, he’s playing beside a target monster in Amon Ra St. Brown who the Lions will look to in almost every crucial spot in this do-or-die game. 

Second, Williams is just one of three receivers the Lions like to use downfield, with Josh Reynolds (5 catches last week) and Kalif Raymond both being more efficient performers for the most part. Raymond missed last week but looks likely to return for this game, hurting Williams’ upside even more. And even with Raymond out, Williams still only managed to earn himself two targets (2 rec, 19 yards) against a poor secondary in the Rams. 

This leads to the last point. History. Williams, despite playing more snaps down the stretch, has still only gone over this 2.5 total twice in his last two games – and has just 11 total targets in his last three games combined. 

We have this total projected with a slight edge to the LOWER but with the Lions receiving core healthier this week it’s a prop I like fading quite a bit. With a potential trip to the Super Bowl looming, it seems unlikely that Detroit will be inclined to change Williams’ usage much this week.

Dalton Kincaid HIGHER than 5.5 targets

• Play to 5.5
• Fantasy Life Projection: 5.7

The Buffalo weather will be a factor once again, but outside of some colder temperatures, we may actually be in for better conditions than we saw last week when the Bills played Pittsburgh. In that game, Kincaid was still able to star for Buffalo, hauling in 3 receptions (on 6 targets) for 59 yards and a TD, and also just missed out on another long TD pass. 

With another great performance under his belt and a very solid Chiefs defense coming to town, it would seem like a near certainty that the Bills plan on featuring the very sure-handed Kincaid once again. While he did have a mini-slump, mid-season, Kincaid’s been an amazing target-getter most of the year and has now recorded at least 6 targets in eight of his last 10 starts. 

While you could look at the HIGHERS on his yards or reception totals in this spot, with WR Gabriel Davis still not practicing as of Thursday, I like going over on this strictly target prop instead. It takes the weather out of play somewhat (as we don’t need him to catch the ball) and also stands out in our projections which have Kincaid much closer to 6.0 targets (than 5.0) in this game. 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire HIGHER than 3.5 receiving yards 

• Play to 4.5
• Fantasy Life Projection: 10.5 

Jerrik McKinnon remains on IR and, last week, Edwards-Helaire was the only non-Isiah Pacheco running back to see the field for the Chiefs. His 30% snap share only resulted in one target (1 rec, 5 yards) but even on that low usage, he STILL would have hit for the HIGHER on this total.

This week, with the Chiefs taking on Buffalo, on the road as underdogs, there is also more potential for Edwards-Helaire to see expanded passing usage – and it’s worth noting that he’s seen multiple snaps in the Chiefs 2min offense in back-to-back games now. 

For all his faults, Edwards-Helaire is still a pretty decent receiver too. He’s converted 20 of his 23 targets into catches this year and has averaged 8.6 yards per reception for his career. With the Bills potentially without their best LB Terrel Bernard (questionable), there does appear to be some good value in taking the HIGHER on this low total for Edwards-Helaire this week.

You can combine the above five picks for a 20x payout on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100! Click the Pick'em entry below to tail!

Other Pick'em Plays to Target

With the games being spread across two days I wanted to make sure I covered all four games.

With that in mind, here are a few of my other favorite plays from the rest of the two-day slate:

Baker Mayfield HIGHER 253.5 passing yards (play to 254.5)

• The Lions have allowed the last four QBs they’ve faced to go for over 300 passing yards. Hard to see Mayfield not balling out in this spot. 

C.J. Stroud LOWER 21.5 passing completions (play to 20.5)

• Tough defense (Ravens have held opposing passers under 61% completion rate) and poor weather (potential winds over 15mph)

Rashod Bateman LOWER 25.5 receiving yards (play to 25.0)

• Who knows what his role will be with Andrews back and the passing in this game could be affected by weather as well.

Brandon Aiyuk HIGHER 65.5 receiving yards (play to 67.5)

• Aiyuk is just a solid HIGHER target whenever he’s under 70 yards, period. He does take slot snaps as well and Green Bay has struggled limiting big plays from the slot.