Underdog Pick'em Plays. Top Picks for the NFL Conference Championships.
Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.
If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I also include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” using our Fantasy Life projections.
This week, we’re down to just four teams, so we’ll be building across two games. There is certainly the chance to build some nice same-game tickets on Underdog this week (where all five plays correlate in some manner) but for the article, I am building across both matchups and keeping the 20x payout structure intact.
Last week, we bounced back with a profitable week in the Underdog tracker with a nice 3-way hit in the final game of the divisional round, thanks to a Mecole Hardman LOWER and Khalil Shakir HIGHER hitting.
If you’re looking to target one game or just want more plays I always put extra tickets up in our FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life.
Right now we’re up +73 units on the season for all posted plays and would love to get that number close to +100 units by hitting on the 5-way ticket this week.
While we’re still going for the full 20x payout on this week’s card we do have some lightly correlated plays from each game that will hopefully get us over the hump.
The full 5-way Conference Championship pick’em card is below.
As a reminder, you can sign up for Underdog Fantasy below and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 with promo code LIFE!
George Kittle HIGHER than 60.5 receiving yards
- Play to 64.5
- Fantasy Life Projection: 65.8 yards
Let’s start our card with a player in George Kittle who has both a terrific matchup and who, by way of circumstance, may end up being the most important player for the 49ers this week.
On top of just being an incredible athlete and after-the-catch receiver (who has gone over on this 62.5 total in 10 of 18 games this season) Kittle’s likely going to be getting a little more primary targeting given the Deebo Samuel situation (Samuel is either out or (at best) going to try and play through a serious injury). And, over the last couple of seasons, when Samuel HAS been out for the 49ers, it’s often led to Kittle going nuclear.
In Weeks 7 and 8 this season (when Samuel was out) Kittle caught a combined 14 passes. Over the last five games that Samuel has missed (dating back to 2022), and Kittle has played, Kittle has averaged 92.4 receiving yards, per game.
Given easily Cade Otton was able to hammer the Lions' secondary last week for multiple big plays (5-65-1) the HIGHER this week looks solid, even at over 60 yards.
In a big spot like this, it’s hard to see the veteran coming through with a dud.
David Montgomery HIGHER than 44.5 rushing yards
- Play to 45.5
- Fantasy Life Projection: 53.5 yards
If we like the 49ers to be passing and Kittle to potentially be breaking some big plays that COULD mean the Lions are dominating the time of possession and potentially running the ball a little more as well. Either way, this Montgomery HIGHER makes sense from multiple angles.
The Lions would be wise in this spot to run the ball as much as possible, and thereby avoid the 49ers pass rush from disrupting the game. Jared Goff – like many pocket QBs – struggles when he doesn’t have a clean pocket and the 49ers are tops in the league with 22 INTs on the season.
Further, while San Francisco’s pass defense rates out as one of the best in the league (6th in EPA per dropback) they’re not as good against the rush (24th in EPA per rush), giving the Lions another reason to feature Montgomery more this week
Finally, given that Aaron Jones had plenty of success against the 49ers last week, it stands that Montgomery – who has averaged 70.67 yards per game on the road this season – can replicate some of that success. I like him as a HIGHER play – alongside Kittle – for this game.
Lamar Jackson LOWER than 65.5 rushing yards
- Play to: 64.5
- Projection: 57.5
I’ve leaned on our FREE projections a lot this year and it’s been a pretty successful prop betting season for me as a result (+18.56 units on tracked props, +73.44 units on Underdog pick’em). I’m going to lean on them again here. Both of our projection analysts have this Jackson prop as slightly too high this week and, on the face of it, I agree that the under is appealing enough to bet.
Yes, the Chiefs got bullied last week by Josh Allen (the runner) but even though they are both elite rushing QBs, Jackson’s style of running isn’t as straightforward as Allen’s. Jackson certainly could bust this under in a couple of carries with his explosiveness, but in Todd Monoken’s offense, his increased passing efficiency has often hurt his rushing production at times.
Dec 31, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) throws during the during the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
For the year, Jackson has been under this massive 63.5 rushing total on 13 (out of 17) occasions. And the Chiefs, for all their faults as a rush defense, haven’t done a terrible job spying elite rushers from the QB position this year (they held both Allen and Justin Fields under 50 yards rushing in Week’s 3 and 14 respectively).
Ultimately, after a monster week on the ground by Jackson against the Texans, this just feels like a great sell-high spot on his rushing prop (which is nearly 10 yards higher than it was last week). It’s a LOWER I’m willing to take based on where our projections are at on Jackson this week.
Gus Edwards HIGHER than 44.5 rushing yards
- Play to 45.5
- Fantasy Life Projection: 45.5
If we’re going lower on Lamar Jackson’s rushing prop then I love pairing it with a HIGHER on Edwards. The Ravens RB didn’t have a monster game by any standards last week but he did average 4.0 yards per carry (10-40) against a very tough rush defense in the Texans. This week, the matchup gets much better.
The Chiefs allowed the Bills to bully them up the middle of the field most of the game and Kansas City’s rush defense is just 28th in rush EPA. We don’t have Edwards’ HIGHER projected with a huge edge but the correlation here matters. Edwards has gone over this 44.5-yard total 10 times this season (with Lamar Jackson as his starting QB) and on 8 of those 10 occasions, Jackson has stayed under his current 65.5-yard rushing total.
I like the matchup for Edwards a lot this week and think he’ll likely end up chewing up enough yards to hit his HIGHER and keep Jackson’s totals muted. It’s a Ravens combo play that makes sense from a lot of angles.
Noah Gray HIGHER than 10.5 receiving yards
- Play to 10.5
- Fantasy Life Projection: 15.0 yards
We’ll end with a higher on a backup TE who I think could play a pivotal role for the Chiefs in this game against Baltimore.
If you watched the Chiefs game against the Bills you saw how big a factor their TEs were in that win. Kansas City used far more 12- and 13-man formations in that game than they had all season and that led to higher usage for Gray who played over 60% of the snaps last week for the first time since Week 5.
Gray not only played more snaps but he was well above his seasonal averages in route rate (52% vs 43%) targets per route run (TPPR) (23% vs 13%) and targets share (14% vs 7%). Let’s not make out Gray to be something he’s not (he’s the clear and distant backup to Kelce) but he was getting targets prior to last week (despite playing fewer snaps) and has gone over this prop now in seven of his last 12 games.
The bottom on Gray’s receiving prop this week is that while he’s not likely to become a focal point of this offense, he’s also not being priced as much more than Kelce's stunt double.
Gray’s usage from last week suggests he’s now got his role and that it will likely lead to more opportunities. Either way, this 9.5 prop looks a little too low and our projections (who him in the mid-teens) agree there is an edge to his HIGHER.
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Other Pick'em Plays to Target
Lines on Underdog do move and just in case you need extra plays, here are a couple of other ones from Conference Championship week I have my eye on.
Jameson Williams LOWER 4.5 receiving targets
- Play to 4.0
- Fantasy Life Projection: 3.8 targets
- Initially had this prop in the main card before it went off the board.
- The second-year receiver has now caught less than 3 passes in 12 of 14 games this season and seen less than 5 targets in four straight games (and in 11 of 14 games this year).
Justin Watson LOWER 3.0 receiving targets
- Play to 3.0
- Fantasy Life Projection: 2.5 targets
- Initially had this prop in the main card before it went off the board.
- Watson played on just 44% of the snaps last week and over his last four starts has played on under 50% of the snaps in three of those games.
Christian McCaffrey LOWER 19.5 carries
- Play to 18.5
- Fantasy Life Projection: 18.0
- No rusher has hit for 20+ carries against the Lions this season and CMac projected for under 19.0 on FL.
