Hidden Gems. How to Approach Chiefs Pass-Catchers in Pick'em and DFS
We’ve made it to the end of the road.
There’s only one more game left, which means this is our last chance to throw on our hard hats and go digging for gems.
We don’t have tournaments on Underdog Fantasy for Sunday, but we do have Pick ‘Ems, as well as some big single-game Showdown contests on DraftKings.
And I can’t think of a situation worth mining for gems more than the weird, ambiguous Kansas City Chiefs receiving corps.
Outside of Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, it’s a complete mess. And yet we know one of these ancillary pass catchers is likely to make some kind of splash in the Super Bowl.
Below I’ll dig into all of the gem candidates and give a verdict on how I plan to play them in various contests this weekend.
As a reminder, you can sign up below for Underdog Fantasy with promo code LIFE to get a 100% deposit match of up to $100:
WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- DraftKings salary: $3,000
- Pick'Em: 19.5 receiving yards
- Fantasy Life projection: 22.4
- Playoff target share: 10%
Valdes-Scantling is a polarizing player.
On the one hand, he’s had some high-profile drops over the years (including an egregious one vs. the Eagles in Week 11 that would have been a game-winning TD). On the other, he’s been known to pop up for big games out of nowhere (he had 116 yards and 1 TD in the Conference Championship game last year).
Things are trending in a positive direction for him of late, though. He had two catches for 30+ yards vs. the Bills and one catch for 30+ vs. the Ravens that sealed the game. His routes also jumped to 96% in the Conference Championship.
His 19.38 aDOT (average depth of target) over the last three weeks (and 25% share of the team’s air yards) clearly indicates that MVS remains a boom/bust player.
I have zero desire to play him higher than 19.5 receiving yards straight up, but I am very interested in sprinkling him in DraftKings showdown lineups where big plays return bigger rewards compared to individual receiving lines.
This matchup with the Niners is a good one, too. As Matthew Freedman notes here, the 49ers allowed catches of 20+ yards to both Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams last week and are very banged up in the secondary.
Verdict: sprinkle in Showdown lineups and find alternative receiving props (like over 13.5 longest reception)
WR: Justin Watson
- DraftKings salary: $2,400
- Pick'Em: 16.5 receiving yards
- Fantasy Life projection: 16.6
- Playoff target share: 6%
Watson has maintained a steady presence in the Chiefs offense over the past three weeks while running 55% of the routes during that span.
The problem, however, is that he’s rarely earning targets (6%) or making plays (he’s gone 3 for 36 across three playoff games). The last time he topped 20 receiving yards was in Week 17 vs. the Bengals.
Our projections are almost directly in line with the Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em number, so this seems like a spot to avoid.
Verdict: avoid or take lower on Underdog and fade in Showdown, the floor is low and the upside is non-existent
TE: Noah Gray
- DraftKings salary: $1,800
- Pick'Em: 12.5 receiving yards
- Fantasy Life projection: 16.1
- Playoff target share: 7%
One of the reasons that no other Chiefs WR has emerged as a full-time player outside of Rice and MVS is because the team is running way more 2-TE sets:
Gray has benefited from this development with a 14% target share (8 total targets) in back-to-back games.
He doesn’t offer a ton of upside, but his role is trending in the right direction.
His Pick'Em line on Underdog is only 12.5 receiving yards and we have him projected for 16.1. He’s cleared this number in 12 games this season and bested it twice in the playoffs (20 vs. Miami and 15 at Buffalo).
Verdict: take higher than 12.5 receiving yards on Underdog and sprinkle in Showdown lineups, where he’s $600 cheaper than Watson.
WR: Richie James
- DraftKings salary: $400
- Pick'Em: 4.5 receiving yards
- Fantasy Life projection: 6.7
- Playoff target share: 3%
Do you want the good news or the bad news first?
The good news is that James has surpassed Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman on the depth chart, gets a revenge game against his former team, and would treat us to a sick TD celebration if he scored in the Big Game.
The bad news is that he has run only 20% of the routes over the past three games and earned a measly three targets during that span.
Praying for James to get one catch for 4.5 receiving yards seems like a pretty miserable sweat, but with a $400 salary, he’s certainly on the Showdown menu.
Verdict: avoid receiving yards number, but stack him with Patrick Mahomes on some Showdown teams for salary relief
WR: Mecole Hardman
- DraftKings salary: $1,600
- Pick'Em: n/a
- Fantasy Life projection: 7.4
- Playoff target share: 5%
Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Right when it seemed like Hardman’s role was growing, he fumbled a ball into the endzone during the Chiefs’ Divisional Round tilt with the Bills.
The team responded by banishing him to the shadow realm aka one single offensive snap in the Conference Championship game.
There’s no way to comfortably play Hardman, but it’s worth galaxy-braining him into a few Showdown lineups. Tej makes a good case here why:
Verdict: take lowers if Underdog offers a receiving number, but play in Showdown in non-Mahomes lineups and hope for rushing TDs
Yes, I know, I didn’t write about Kadarius Toney (unlikely to be active) or Skyy Moore (eligible to return from IR but not activated). I didn’t have it in me, sorry.
